Notes on the race:
It's gonna come down to Duvall and Fonda -- although Nicholson took the SAG award! Damon is more likely to be rewarded for his screenplay than his performance, and Hoffman and Nicholson have won too many times already. Fonda is a sentimental favorite (think what a great moment it would make for the Academy to embrace Hank's son, Jane's brother, Bridget's dad -- after so many years as Hollywood's wild angel). And he does have the Golden Globe in his favor. On the other hand, Ulee's Gold is a very small movie, and was released in the first half of the year, so it doesn't have much momentum behind it now. And Fonda's performance is not the kind of showy, "Look at me, I'm acting!" part that the Academy tends to drool over. Duvall has four big things going for him: 1) he wrote a great role for himself (actors, who are the Academy's largest branch, love that!); 2) The Apostle marked a major career move (think of Robert Redford and Kevin Costner, both of whom won Oscars for their first directing efforts) and, although it isn't nominated for best picture or director, is considered to be another career highpoint for Duvall; 3) given that The Titanic is being held up this year as the epitome of good, old-fashioned Hollywood moviemaking (as opposed to last year's Invasion of the Indies), the acting categories are likely places for the Academy to acknowledge smaller films like The Apostle (or maybe Ulee's Gold); and 4) he's playing a flamboyant preacher (remember Elmer Gantry, anybody?). I'm putting my money on Duvall.

Winner marked in blue.

• Other awards: In the last few years, the Golden Globes and Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners have been "leading indicators" (as those in the equally precise science of economics say) of the Academy's picks.
  GG -- Golden Globes (yeah, they're a joke, but their choices do sometimes coincide with the Academy's)
  DG -- Directors Guild of America (directors only)
  WG -- Writers Guild of America (screenplays only)
  SA -- Screen Actors Guild (actors only)

PG -- Producers Guild of America (producers only -- but, remember, they're the ones who take home the best picture statuette)
LA -- Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NY -- New York Film Critics Circle
NS -- National Society of Film Critics

• Vegas odds:  Poor Lenny DelGenio. The guy's been picking Oscar odds for 17 years (last year he was with Bally's; this year it's the New Frontier Hotel and Casino), but he only does 'em once -- the day the nominations are announced -- and then brags about being right (in the major categories only) a less-than-impressive 60 percent of the time!  Nevertheless, for what it's worth...
• Bacon factor:  Computed with the invaluable assistance of the Oracle of Bacon at Virginia, the "Bacon factor" has never been shown to have statistical significance in choosing the Oscars.  Nevertheless, I knew you'd want to know.  This number indicates how many steps removed from Kevin Bacon a particular actor may be.  A Bacon factor of "1" means the person has actually worked with Kevin himself.  A Bacon factor of "2" means the person has worked with someone who has worked with Kyra's hubby.  And so on -- but these days (especially thanks to "Sleepers," which had everybody in it) you'd have to get really obscure to find anyone with a Bacon factor of more than 2.
• Other factors:  These are just some of the other things that have been shown (or at least theorized) to affect the Academy's decisions. (For example: historical epics tend to win; comedies don't.)
  FC -- this indicates the results of Film Comment's annual "Oscar Predix" poll of 11 esteemed movie experts.  I've indicated here with a number (say, 10/11) only the predictions that are clear favorites or split decisions.  For the full breakdown, including who voted for what, you'll have to check out Film Comment, or its website at the Film Society of Lincoln Center.  FC's   "dream team" (and remember, these are predictions, not preferences) is: David Ansen (Newsweek), Sheila Benson (Microsoft Cinemania), Manohla Dargis (L.A. Weekly), John Hartl (Seattle Times), Dave Kehr (New York Daily News), Todd McCarthy (Variety), Andrew Sarris (New York Observer), Richard Schickel (Time), Gavin Smith (Film Comment), Anne Thompson (Premiere), Kenneth Turan (Los Angeles Times).