Notes on the race:
This is one of the toughest races to call this year (as you can see by the wide-ranging split of the Film Comment panel).  In a peculiar twist of fate, this may be one of the few times in Academy history when it's possible that having a British accent is actually not an advantage in an acting category -- only because four of the five nominees are British, and may therefore split the vote.  (That appears to be what happened during the nominations, when the uniform excellence of the L.A. Confidental actors -- Russell Crowe, Guy Pearce, Kevin Spacey, James Cromwell -- most likely diluted each individual's chances.)  Of the Brits, I'd lean toward Helena Bonham Carter, because it's a way for the Academy to acknowledge the kind of  small, quality/literary/period/costume film the Academy usually loves (in contrast to The Titanic, which is leading in many other categories this year), and it's the first nomination of someone you'd swear had been nominated before.  But I think Hunt has the best chance, for the following reasons: 1) she's the only American; 2) she offers the Academy a way to acknowledge As Good as It Gets, a movie many people enjoyed immensely; 3) it's a juicy role: a tough-but-vulnerable, sympathetic, hard-working single mom -- with a sick kid to boot; 4) she plays a waitress, and most Hollywood actresses are waitresses; 5) she approaches the age difference with Jack Nicholson with just enough hesitation to make you believe it.

Winner marked in blue.

• Other awards: In the last few years, the Golden Globes and Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners have been "leading indicators" (as those in the equally precise science of economics say) of the Academy's picks.
  GG -- Golden Globes (yeah, they're a joke, but their choices do sometimes coincide with the Academy's)
  DG -- Directors Guild of America (directors only)
  WG -- Writers Guild of America (screenplays only)
  SA -- Screen Actors Guild (actors only)

PG -- Producers Guild of America (producers only -- but, remember, they're the ones who take home the best picture statuette)
LA -- Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NY -- New York Film Critics Circle
NS -- National Society of Film Critics

• Vegas odds:  Poor Lenny DelGenio. The guy's been picking Oscar odds for 17 years (last year he was with Bally's; this year it's the New Frontier Hotel and Casino), but he only does 'em once -- the day the nominations are announced -- and then brags about being right (in the major categories only) a less-than-impressive 60 percent of the time!  Nevertheless, for what it's worth...
• Bacon factor:  Computed with the invaluable assistance of the Oracle of Bacon at Virginia, the "Bacon factor" has never been shown to have statistical significance in choosing the Oscars.  Nevertheless, I knew you'd want to know.  This number indicates how many steps removed from Kevin Bacon a particular actor may be.  A Bacon factor of "1" means the person has actually worked with Kevin himself.  A Bacon factor of "2" means the person has worked with someone who has worked with Kyra's hubby.  And so on -- but these days (especially thanks to "Sleepers," which had everybody in it) you'd have to get really obscure to find anyone with a Bacon factor of more than 2. Director Bacon factors are my own computations.
• Other factors:  These are just some of the other things that have been shown (or at least theorized) to affect the Academy's decisions. (For example: historical epics tend to win; comedies don't.)
  FC -- this indicates the results of Film Comment's annual "Oscar Predix" poll of 11 esteemed movie experts.  I've indicated here with a number (say, 10/11) only the predictions that are clear favorites or split decisions.  For the full breakdown, including who voted for what, you'll have to check out Film Comment, or its website at the Film Society of Lincoln Center.  FC's   "dream team" (and remember, these are predictions, not preferences) is: David Ansen (Newsweek), Sheila Benson (Microsoft Cinemania), Manohla Dargis (L.A. Weekly), John Hartl (Seattle Times), Dave Kehr (New York Daily News), Todd McCarthy (Variety), Andrew Sarris (New York Observer), Richard Schickel (Time), Gavin Smith (Film Comment), Anne Thompson (Premiere), Kenneth Turan (Los Angeles Times).