Notes on the race:
Looks like no contest here.  L.A. Confidential is the only one of the nominees that's also up for best picture.  Plus, the script has won every major critics' award and the WGA prize in this category. Oh yeah -- and it's a terrific adaptation.  Even crusty, cranky James Ellroy, on whose book(s) it's based (it takes material from novels before and after L.A. Confidential, from The Big Nowhere and White Jazz) publicly marveled at the skill with which the writers pared down his prose for the screen. As for the also-rans:  Wag the Dog is more like yesterday's headlines than today's or tomorrow's; it doesn't take risks and its tone is too smug, too pleased with its own cleverness. (It's also embroiled in a controversy about whether they actually used any of Henken's first stab at an adaptation.) Donnie Brasco (which people had largely forgotten about, it was released so early in 1997), The Sweet Hereafter, and Wings of the Dove are all marvelous scripts, but this just isn't their year for Oscar.

Winners marked in blue.

• Other necessary nominations: Since the adapted screenplay winner is, statistically, the most common best picture winner, it helps if the film is also nominated for best picture (and, consequently, director). Pix with acting noms are also favored.
• Other awards: In the last few years, the Golden Globes and Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners have been "leading indicators" (as those in the equally precise science of economics say) of the Academy's picks.
  GG -- Golden Globes (yeah, they're a joke, but they do sometimes coincide with the Academy)
  DG -- Directors Guild of America (directors only)
  WG -- Writers Guild of America (screenplays only)
  SA -- Screen Actors Guild (actors only)

PG -- Producers Guild of America (producers only -- but, remember, they're the ones who take home the best picture statuette)
LA -- Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NY -- New York Film Critics Circle
NS -- National Society of Film Critics

• Vegas odds:  Poor Lenny DelGenio. The guy's been picking Oscar odds for 17 years (last year he was with Bally's; this year it's the New Frontier Hotel and Casino), but he only does 'em once -- the day the nominations are announced -- and then brags about being right (in the major categories only) a less-than-impressive 60 percent of the time!  Nevertheless, for what it's worth...
• Bacon factor:  Computed with the invaluable assistance of the Oracle of Bacon at Virginia, the "Bacon factor" has never been shown to have statistical significance in choosing the Oscars.  Nevertheless, I knew you'd want to know.  This number indicates how many steps removed from Kevin Bacon a particular actor may be.  A Bacon factor of "1" means the person has actually worked with Kevin himself.  A Bacon factor of "2" means the person has worked with someone who has worked with Kyra's hubby.  And so on -- but these days (especially thanks to "Sleepers," which had everybody in it) you'd have to get really obscure to find anyone with a Bacon factor of more than 2.
• Other factors:  These are just some of the other things that have been shown (or at least theorized) to affect the Academy's decisions. (For example: historical epics tend to win; comedies don't.)
  FC -- this indicates the results of Film Comment's annual "Oscar Predix" poll of 11 esteemed movie experts.  I've indicated here with a number (say, 10/11) only the predictions that are clear favorites or split decisions.  For the full breakdown, including who voted for what, you'll have to check out Film Comment, or its website at the Film Society of Lincoln Center.   FC's  "dream team" (and remember, these are predictions, not preferences) is: David Ansen (Newsweek), Sheila Benson (Microsoft Cinemania), Manohla Dargis (L.A. Weekly), John Hartl (Seattle Times), Dave Kehr (New York Daily News), Todd McCarthy (Variety), Andrew Sarris (New York Observer), Richard Schickel (Time), Gavin Smith (Film Comment), Anne Thompson (Premiere), Kenneth Turan (Los Angeles Times).