Notes on the race:
The scenario is just too good for the Academy (or anyone else, for that matter) to resist: Two good-looking, struggling young actors -- best friends since childhood, then roomies -- are dissatisfied with the parts they've been able to get, so they take a one-act student play one of them has written and turn it into a movie script.   Years later, after all kinds of development detours and dead ends, it gets made, they become stars, and their movie gets nominated for best picture.  I don't think anybody (particularly that sizeable actors' branch) wants to take that away from Matt Damon and Ben Affleck (who also have Golden Globes under their 32-inch belts). The only other team who might spoil their night are WGA winners Mark Andrus and James L. Brooks -- but remember, that WGA award is from writers only, and the whole Academy votes in this category.  Brooks and Andrus are on the cover of the Oscar-time WGA magazine (with a huge interview inside), and writers see Brooks as one of them, while they view Damon and Affleck as actors who just happened to dabble in screenwriting. Personally, I think Boogie Nights is -- by far -- the best script nominated, but realistically, I don't think it stands a chance of winning.

Winners marked in blue.

• Other necessary nominations: Since one of the screenplay winners is also usually a best picture winners, it helps to have best picture and director nominations. Winners are usually pics that have acting noms, too.
• Other awards: In the last few years, the Golden Globes and Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners have been "leading indicators" (as those in the equally precise science of economics say) of the Academy's picks.
  GG -- Golden Globes (yeah, they're a joke, but they do sometimes coincide with the Academy)
  DG -- Directors Guild of America (directors only)
  WG -- Writers Guild of America (screenplays only)
  SA -- Screen Actors Guild (actors only)

PG -- Producers Guild of America (producers only -- but, remember, they're the ones who take home the best picture statuette)
LA -- Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NY -- New York Film Critics Circle
NS -- National Society of Film Critics

• Vegas odds:  Poor Lenny DelGenio. The guy's been picking Oscar odds for 17 years (last year he was with Bally's; this year it's the New Frontier Hotel and Casino), but he only does 'em once -- the day the nominations are announced -- and then brags about being right (in the major categories only) a less-than-impressive 60 percent of the time!  Nevertheless, for what it's worth...
• Bacon factor:  Computed with the invaluable assistance of the Oracle of Bacon at Virginia, the "Bacon factor" has never been shown to have statistical significance in choosing the Oscars.  Nevertheless, I knew you'd want to know.  This number indicates how many steps removed from Kevin Bacon a particular actor may be.  A Bacon factor of "1" means the person has actually worked with Kevin himself.  A Bacon factor of "2" means the person has worked with someone who has worked with Kyra's hubby.  And so on -- but these days (especially thanks to "Sleepers," which had everybody in it) you'd have to get really obscure to find anyone with a Bacon factor of more than 2.
• Other factors:  These are just some of the other things that have been shown (or at least theorized) to affect the Academy's decisions. (For example: historical epics tend to win; comedies don't.)
  FC -- this indicates the results of Film Comment's annual "Oscar Predix" poll of 11 esteemed movie experts.  I've indicated here with a number (say, 10/11) only the predictions that are clear favorites or split decisions.  For the full breakdown, including who voted for what, you'll have to check out Film Comment, or its website at the Film Society of Lincoln Center.   FC's  "dream team" (and remember, these are predictions, not preferences) is: David Ansen (Newsweek), Sheila Benson (Microsoft Cinemania), Manohla Dargis (L.A. Weekly), John Hartl (Seattle Times), Dave Kehr (New York Daily News), Todd McCarthy (Variety), Andrew Sarris (New York Observer), Richard Schickel (Time), Gavin Smith (Film Comment), Anne Thompson (Premiere), Kenneth Turan (Los Angeles Times).