Notes on the race:
Leonardo and Kate may be the Titanic heart-throbs of the moment, but the movie's real heart is veteran actress Gloria Stuart.  Everybody in the Academy would like to be working when they're her age (nowhere near 101, by the way) -- just look at those late-in-life Oscars for Jessica Tandy and Don Ameche. Frankly, Stuart deserves this one even more.  Kim Basinger has the Golden Globe on her side. And, frankly, she was surprisingly terrific (showing, Elizabeth Shue-like, what she can do with a good script and director) -- and she's the only acting nominee in an exceptionally well-acted movie.  Julianne Moore is also fantastic (as always), getting her first nomination in a year in which she also appeared in quirky (semi-)indies (The Myth of Fingerprints, The Big Lebowski, Boogie Nights) and her first blockbuster (The Lost World: Jurassic Park).  Cusack is always great (this nomination should also be for her work in '97's Grosse Point Blank), but the Academy often doesn't take comedic performances seriously. Still, her line, "Do you know how many times I had to watch Funny Lady?!?!" has probably given me more laughs than any other line this year. And Minnie Driver was good enough to make you forget she was playing a disposable part ("The Girl") in Good Will Hunting. I think it's between Stuart and Basinger -- and you can look at it two ways, if you want to compare it to last year.  Everybody thought the old vet, Lauren Bacall, was going to win in this category, but she didn't.  So, could the same thing happen to Stuart?   Maybe, but the person who won was Juliette Binoche, the supporting actress nominee for a best picture winner in which the lead actors were not seen as the most important or impressive aspects of the production -- just like Titanic.  So, it's a close call, but depending on how the Titanic sweep shapes up, I'm betting on Stuart.

Winner marked in blue.

• Other awards: In the last few years, the Golden Globes and Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners have been "leading indicators" (as those in the equally precise science of economics say) of the Academy's picks.
  GG -- Golden Globes (yeah, they're a joke, but they do sometimes coincide with the Academy)
  DG -- Directors Guild of America (directors only)
  WG -- Writers Guild of America (screenplays only)
  SA -- Screen Actors Guild (actors only)

PG -- Producers Guild of America (producers only -- but, remember, they're the ones who take home the best picture statuette)
LA -- Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NY -- New York Film Critics Circle
NS -- National Society of Film Critics

• Vegas odds:  Poor Lenny DelGenio. The guy's been picking Oscar odds for 17 years (last year he was with Bally's; this year it's the New Frontier Hotel and Casino), but he only does 'em once -- the day the nominations are announced -- and then brags about being right (in the major categories only) a less-than-impressive 60 percent of the time!  Nevertheless, for what it's worth...
• Bacon factor:  Computed with the invaluable assistance of the Oracle of Bacon at Virginia, the "Bacon factor" has never been shown to have statistical significance in choosing the Oscars.  Nevertheless, I knew you'd want to know.  This number indicates how many steps removed from Kevin Bacon a particular actor may be.  A Bacon factor of "1" means the person has actually worked with Kevin himself.  A Bacon factor of "2" means the person has worked with someone who has worked with Kyra's hubby.  And so on -- but these days (especially thanks to "Sleepers," which had everybody in it) you'd have to get really obscure to find anyone with a Bacon factor of more than 2.
• Other factors:  These are just some of the other things that have been shown (or at least theorized) to affect the Academy's decisions. (For example: historical epics tend to win; comedies don't.)
  FC -- this indicates the results of Film Comment's annual "Oscar Predix" poll of 11 esteemed movie experts.  I've indicated here with a number (say, 10/11) only the predictions that are clear favorites or split decisions.  For the full breakdown, including who voted for what, you'll have to check out Film Comment, or its website at the Film Society of Lincoln Center.   FC's  "dream team" (and remember, these are predictions, not preferences) is: David Ansen (Newsweek), Sheila Benson (Microsoft Cinemania), Manohla Dargis (L.A. Weekly), John Hartl (Seattle Times), Dave Kehr (New York Daily News), Todd McCarthy (Variety), Andrew Sarris (New York Observer), Richard Schickel (Time), Gavin Smith (Film Comment), Anne Thompson (Premiere), Kenneth Turan (Los Angeles Times).